SF vs Austin: Metro Growth

Population, economy, housing, and income — two metros compared

Data sources

People

SF metro: 4.34M in 2010 → 4.63M in 2025 (+6.6%). Austin metro: 1.73M → 2.62M (+51.7%). In 2021 alone, SF lost 134,000 domestic migrants while Austin gained 44,000.

Population

Population growth (indexed)

Net domestic migration

Domestic migration only — excludes international migration and natural change (births minus deaths).

Economic output

Austin's total real GDP more than doubled since 2010. SF's GDP per capita is $152k vs Austin's $84k — nearly 2x. The industry composition below shows why: SF loads heavily on Information and Professional Services, sectors with high output per worker.

Real GDP growth (indexed)

Chained 2017 dollars. 2024 estimated from BEA county-level data (metro-level discontinued).

Real GDP per capita

Employment by sector

Labor market

SF has ~530 nonfarm jobs per 1,000 residents vs Austin's ~520. The gap was wider before 2020. SF's total nonfarm employment still hasn't recovered to its 2019 peak of 2,513k — it's at 2,442k as of late 2024.

Jobs per 1,000 residents

Nonfarm employment ÷ interpolated monthly population × 1,000.

Unemployment rate

Housing

Austin consistently permits 4–5x more housing per capita than SF. Austin home values surged from $327k to $530k during the pandemic, then corrected to $425k. SF homes ($1.1M) are ~2.6x Austin's in dollar terms. SF rents ($3,100/mo) are roughly double Austin's ($1,560/mo).

Building permits per 1,000 residents

12-month rolling sum of new private housing permits, normalized by population.

FHFA House Price Index

All-Transactions HPI. SF series covers the SF-San Mateo-Redwood City metro division (CBSA 41884). Index measures relative price change, not absolute levels — base is Q1 1995.

Typical home value

Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) — smoothed, seasonally adjusted estimate of the typical home value.

Typical monthly rent

Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) — smoothed measure of the typical observed market rent.

Income & cost of living

SF's median household income leads Austin's by ~$30k nominally. Adjust for regional prices (SF is 16–22% above the US average; Austin is near average) and the gap shrinks to ~$9k. Add California's state income tax — Texas has none — and the gap is ~$3k. Property tax burdens are roughly equal in dollar terms: CA's lower rate (0.7%) × higher home values ≈ TX's higher rate (1.8%) × lower home values.

Median household income

Solid = nominal. Dashed = adjusted for regional cost of living (÷ RPP). Dotted = further adjusted for CA state income tax (TX has no state income tax). Austin's dotted line equals its dashed line.

Per capita personal income

Includes wages, investment income, and transfers. Solid = nominal. Dashed = cost-of-living adjusted (÷ RPP).

Regional price parity

BEA Regional Price Parities: US average = 100. Higher = more expensive.

Notes

  • MSAs: San Francisco–Oakland–Berkeley (CBSA 41860) and Austin–Round Rock–Georgetown (CBSA 12420).
  • Population estimates anchored at July 1 each year, interpolated to monthly for per-capita normalizations.
  • 2024 metro GDP estimated by applying county-level 2023→2024 growth rates (from BEA CAGDP9) to the FRED 2023 values. BEA discontinued metro-level GDP publication starting with the 2024 release.
  • Cost-of-living adjustment: nominal value ÷ (RPP / 100). RPP reflects price differences for goods, services, and housing.
  • CA state income tax computed from 2024 brackets (married filing jointly). TX has no state income tax. Federal taxes are the same for both and not factored in.
  • FHFA HPI for SF uses metro division 41884 (SF–San Mateo–Redwood City), not the full MSA, because the MSA-level series is unavailable.
  • Zillow ZHVI and ZORI cover the same MSA boundaries as Census definitions.
  • Employment by sector uses BLS CES (not seasonally adjusted). "Construction+" includes mining and logging (negligible share).